In his annual New Year’s speech on January 3, President Putin expressed thanks to the Russian people for supporting the removal of Ukrainian children from occupied Ukrainian territory and their relocation to Russia. Using the ill-conceived argument that these children were “left without parental care,” Russian officials have forcibly taken children from their families and sent them on “holidays” to Russia with no intention of returning them.
Putin instructed the Russian Commissioner for the Rights of the Child, Maria Lvova-Belova, and Russian occupation officials in the regions that Russia controls in Ukraine to provide “state social assistance” and “social support” and to identify these children as orphans in need of care and protection. He has also facilitated the adoption of these children by Russian families. This kidnapping scheme is one of the most egregious war crimes being conducted by Russia, and it demands greater attention from the democratic countries who are united in their support for Ukraine’s struggle for freedom.
Last May, Putin issued a decree that made it quick and easy for Russians to adopt children from Ukraine, and the clear intention of Russian officials is to strip them of their Ukrainian identity and teach them about Russian history and culture. These Ukrainian children have families and relatives who want them back home, but Russian authorities have been secretive about their plans and about how many children have been taken to Russia. After Russian forces occupied Ukrainian territory and Putin declared these territories part of the Russian Federation, Ukrainian children who live there are now treated as Russians.
No one knows for sure how many children have been kidnapped by the Russian authorities, but the estimates range from 10,000 to 13,000, some taken from orphanages and others forcibly removed from their parents or grandparents with no information about where they were going to be taken. Russian families who take these children get compensation from the Russian government and are encouraged to make them into Russian patriots.
The 1948 United Nations Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide specifically prohibits stealing children, brainwashing them, and removing their language and culture. These crimes of genocide must be a part of the long list of war crimes for which Russians will be held accountable when this war ends.
What is important to understand about this tragic situation is the deep underlying reality that Russian leaders face. Putin is aggressively threatening the security system dominated by the United States and its allies in Western Europe and attempting to create an alternative system in which he and other autocrats become major players. But the reality is that Russia is an empire in serious decline – it is underdeveloped and increasingly economically weak. One example of Russia’s comparative economic weakness is that for all of its gas and oil, Russia’s total exports in 2021 were less than Belgium’s.
One of the key indicators of Russia’s decline in power is its demographic reality. Russia is losing its population, a trend that has been carefully tracked by Nicholas Eberstadt, one of America’s leading demographers at the American Enterprise Institute. For the last thirty years, deaths in Russia have exceeded births by a cumulative 15.7 million. Current estimates are that Russia’s population will shrink by a quarter in one generation, not counting immigration. Mortality statistics make it clear that Russia’s record is worse than in 23 of the 46 countries categorized as “least developed.”
Despite being a well-educated country, Russia’s knowledge economy is largely dysfunctional. One measure of this is the number of patents created by Russians, the ninth largest country in population. Currently, Russia’s rate of patents is on par with the state of Alabama. Although Russia’s population is three and a half times larger than California’s, California produced 80 times more patents in 2020.
Based on Eberstadt’s research, the contrast between Putin’s risky foreign policy and his desires to extend Russia’s control over its former Soviet empire and “the reality of a society and economy hollowed out by poor health and lack of economic competitiveness is striking.” Kidnapping Ukraine’s kids and shipping them to Russia is not going to solve Russia’s demographic problems. According to its 2010 census, the Russian Federation includes more than 200 national or ethnic groups, and its Russian share of the population is declining, while its Muslim population is growing.
The bottom line is that Putin’s ambitions do not match Russia’s current assets. This disconnect suggests that the Russian empire, one of the last empires in Europe, will not survive – although dying empires often last longer than expected.
UPDATE on stoves for Ukraine: Many of you supported Mission Eurasia’s (ME) wood-burning stove project. So far, 442 stoves have been delivered to churches and families in the areas most impacted by the war, and ME has purchased steel and materials for another 1,000 stoves. They need another $89,500 to fulfill their plan to build and deliver a total of 2,000 stoves this winter.