Putin and his National Security Council have created and sustained a warped normalcy in Russia in which everyone focuses on continuing business as usual in their private lives, while not engaging in politics. This allows the Kremlin to maintain what appears to be a high level of support for the war against Ukraine. This helpful insight is from Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who has lived in Moscow since the war began and has carefully tracked popular opinion in Russia for years. He describes how Russians simply follow the rules and try to adapt to the current situation.
Kolesnikov came up with the memorable phrase “learned indifference.” Here’s how he describes the way most Russians have survived 23 years of Putin’s presidency: “They are trying to find words or self-justification for their behavior. They are trying to find words which can describe the external world for themselves. So because of that, they use official narratives, they use Putin’s words, they use words of the state television. And that’s enough for them because they have to survive this period.”
The tension facing Putin’s autocracy is continuing domestic repression of any opposition while sustaining economic normalcy. Kolesnikov summarizes this unwritten social contract in Russia: “Be quiet, be good citizens, be patriotic citizens. But at the same time, you can return to work. You can return to your everyday life . . . You must go to the polling stations, you must vote for me [Putin]. But at the same time, after that, you can go to the cinema, you can go home, you can concentrate on your private problems.”
The most reliable surveys in Russia indicate that 20% of the population are strong supporters of the war and Putin’s regime, and 20% do not support the war and prefer democracy and improved relations with the West. In the middle, Kolesnikov describes the remaining 60% as “swamp people” or “quagmire people.” He uses these terms to describe people who are ready to follow the official propaganda from the Kremlin and who refuse to think independently because they want a quiet life.
To solidify his support base, Putin and his advisors recently began to articulate a revised ideology that combines traditional conservative Russian values, highlights from Russia’s past history – particularly its role in the Second World War in which the Soviet Union is given credit for defeating the Nazis, and Russia’s imperial expansion under the Romanovs, which made their country the largest on earth. This has become Putin’s tool for managing his political system. His ideology now has national, imperial, and messianic characteristics.
Unlike the earlier Putin years, in which he talked about “managed democracy” and encouraged Russians to get rich by engaging in the world’s free market economy largely controlled by the West, the West – particularly the United States and NATO – have become Russia’s principal enemy. Putin has declared war on the West, and he is out to undermine democracies, with the help of his fellow autocrats in Iran, North Korea, and China.
It struck me as I wrote this essay that “learned indifference” also accurately characterizes the behavior of many Americans. The indifference toward Ukraine’s plight and the opposition to any further financial assistance in supporting Ukraine’s effort to counter the Russian invasion of their country is approaching a very dangerous stage. The population of Americans who are not paying attention to this situation, which includes the massacre of innocent Ukrainians and the theft of their children, is not unlike the indifference of the Russian population. But the “learned indifference” of the Russians is shaped in large part by Putin’s security forces, who can make opposition to the war in Ukraine punishable by imprisonment.
In the United States, “learned indifference” is not caused by a repressive government, but by people focused on pursuing wealth and advancement, being distracted in a celebrity culture, or getting addicted to sports, gambling or other forms of recreation – in other words, by developing a life that is driven by personal interest or gain. Combined with these cultural factors is a general lack of interest in what is happening in our world, a form of isolation nurtured by our media and fueled by “compassion fatigue.” Most Americans do not realize the consequences of what a Russian victory may mean in Ukraine if we fail to support their armed forces.
If Ukraine is unable to drive the Russians out of their country, Putin has already indicated where his troops will go next. The Baltic states (Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia) have already been called “traitors” by Putin for having joined NATO. Of the 15 former republics of the Soviet Union, only these three countries have joined NATO. Putin has targeted them because they have “gone to the West.” In his mind, these countries are worse than traitors, they are enemies. Poland and other Russian neighbors are also potential targets. Because these countries are members of NATO, the United States and its NATO partners are committed to defend them. This means our children and grandchildren might be on the battlefield against the Kremlin’s forces, who need war to justify their autocracy’s survival and protect their stolen assets, conservatively estimated to be over $1 trillion dollars.
Indifference to these events, and the lack of strong opposition to President Trump’s statements about withdrawing the United States from NATO if he is elected to the presidency in November, is a serious threat to our country’s defensive system. Max Boot, a foreign policy columnist for the Washington Post, has written, “Every president since Franklin D. Roosevelt believed that the United States should exercise preeminent international influence for its own good and that of the world. Trump is the lone exception.”
Indifference in our own country has meant that Trump freely boasts about “being the apple of his [Putin’s] eye,” and he has encouraged Putin to attack any NATO country that cannot support its own defense. How can the Republican Party allow its leading candidate to talk this way and have no one stand up against this subversive advice? Americans need to get over their indifference and realize that Putin is a mass murderer whose troops have made this very clear by bombing civilians, often the elderly and children in Ukraine, building torture chambers in every major city they have occupied in Ukraine, and engaging in genocide against the Ukrainian people, while at the same time seeking to destroy all signs of Ukraine’s culture and religions.
If the United States Congress refuses to continue support for Ukraine, which has been less than 5% of the U.S. defense budget, the consequences for our country – and for our families – will be painful and will encourage the other autocrats in Iran, North Korea, and China to follow Russia’s lead. We will then be forced to prepare for the next war against “Autocracy, Inc.,” which is committed to undermining the world’s democracies.
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Helpful resources:
Andrei Kolesnikov, “Putin’s Fragile Compact with the Russian People,” Foreign Affairs (January 11, 2024).
John A. Bernbaum, “Do Russian People Support the War with Ukraine?” (Reflections on World Politics, July 9, 2022) on Substack.