As tensions build in our country in anticipation of the presidential and congressional elections of 2024, the majority of both political parties remain supportive of Ukraine’s battle for survival against Russia. There are certain individuals on both wings of the political spectrum, however, who continue to make radical claims against additional funding for Ukraine’s war effort – their voices are reminiscent of those politicians who loudly argued about “who lost Russia” when democratic reforms failed in the former Soviet Union. Election cycles are challenging times to maintain a consistent foreign policy, when political counselors are always trying to find new themes to attract votes.
One of the authoritative sources that I rely on is the Institute for the Study of War, based in Washington, D.C. Recently the Institute issued a report titled “Reframing the US Policy Debate on a ‘Long War’ in Ukraine” (April 27, 2023). It provided significant insights into the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia, and the role of the other nations supporting each of the two opponents.
Here are the report’s principal arguments, which steer clear of the domestic political debates waging in our country:
By supporting Ukraine, the United States is not facing a “long war” in Ukraine because the United States is not fighting in this war. “Ukraine is defending itself against an unprovoked Russian invasion, and the US is supporting Ukraine. Comparisons to Iraq or Afghanistan are not appropriate.”
“The US is not fighting a proxy war.” Ukraine asked for support from the US and European Union because Russia launched a genocidal attack against its people, and we agreed to support their struggle – a struggle that they would have undertaken with or without support from the western democracies.
“The West and Ukraine are not protracting or spreading this war: Russia is.” Putin and his national security cronies, in an effort to secure their hold on political power in Russia and to protect the assets they have stolen from the Russian people, invaded Ukraine – it was entirely a “war of choice.” Russia continues the conflict, which is costing the lives of many young Russian soldiers, and Putin “can choose to end it at any point.”
“The US cannot avoid a long Russian war in Ukraine without helping Ukraine liberate its territory.” Russia will use any territory in Ukraine to build military bases for launching future attacks, as we have seen in this war. The brutality used by Russia against the local people in its occupied territories is horrendous.
“Metering Western support to Ukraine increases the risk of a long war.” If the West holds back supplies and gives the Ukrainians only what they need at the time, this allows the Russians to stabilize their defensive lines and prepare for future attacks by forcibly getting additional recruits, especially from minority populations in their country. Giving enough aid only for the next Ukrainian counteroffensive increases the risk of a long war. Experts believe that Ukraine can be successful in this war, but it “will not be able to liberate all the Russian-occupied territory in a single counteroffensive and will require several successful counteroffensives to win the war.” The West must prepare to support a series of attacks aimed at forcing Russian forces out of their country.
The Kremlin – and its president – has made it clear that Russia will also seek to control other countries in this region, particularly Belarus and Moldova, with the larger goal of weakening NATO and undermining the US. “The Kremlin is rallying Russian society for a long fight against the West.”
George Weigel’s essay “What Ukraine Means” (First Things, May 2023) offers some additional insights that are worthy of consideration. He begins with this observation: “Now, after a year marked by bestial cruelty on one side and astonishing courage on the other, the Russian war on Ukraine stands before us as a pivotal moment in contemporary history . . . What Ukraine means for the United States is that there is no holiday from history and no escape from world politics for America and Americans.”
Weigel continues his essay with this observation: “If the secret of happiness is liberty and the secret of liberty is courage, the secret of courage is faith; faith in a larger reality than ourselves; faith in a destiny beyond this life and its great but inevitably transient satisfactions; faith that we are creatures capable of nobility and self-giving, not merely self-assertion and willfulness; faith that solidarity is possible amid plurality; faith that courage can overcome evil, some day. That is what Ukraine means. And that is why we owe a great debt of gratitude and solidarity to Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.”