My goal in writing these updates is to help interested readers to understand the complexities of this war and its significance for our Ukrainian friends, as well as for us as Americans. The topics I’ve addressed so far have related both to the war front as well as the home front, and the interaction between these two dimensions of the conflict.
This update introduces a totally different perspective. Rather than reflecting on incoming reports of the war, I’ve decided to share the insights of four of the world’s most authoritative experts on the Russian-Ukrainian war. These experts are neither generals, nor political leaders, nor war correspondents – they are historians, four scholars who attended a conference held in Kyiv in September, which in itself is impressive. The title of their discussion was “The Place of War in Human History” – only historians could come up with such a boring title!
What made their insights particularly helpful was these experts’ considerable knowledge of the history of Ukraine and Russia and the larger context in which this battle is taking place. Rather than summarizing the views of each historian here, I am instead going to share the “really big picture” as they see it; I will share resources at the end of this update for any of you who may be interested in learning more.
The dominant theme of this discussion was that the Russian-Ukrainian war is essentially a “colonial war” in which the last empire in Europe – the Russian Federation – is trapped in a conflict that it started and now cannot possibly win. The historians reminded the audience that after World War II the powers in western Europe, having lost their former overseas colonies, faced this new reality by creating a “European Union” with their neighbors. The one large remaining empire after the war was the Union of Soviet Socialist States (USSR), but Russia has been a declining power for more than 100 years and its slow disintegration has been like that of the Ottoman Empire. On a personal note, I remember being in Moscow after the Soviet Union collapsed in December 1991 and referring to it as the UFFR (Union of Fewer and Fewer Republics). But I did not see the larger picture of the country’s deep internal corruption and lack of national identity.
Political realists assume that time is on the side of the Russians because of their country’s huge size and natural resources, but the historians pointed out how the United States lost Vietnam’s “war of liberation” and how Russia similarly lost the “war of liberation” with Afghanistan. A principal theme of all the speakers was that empires rot and that is what we are witnessing in Russia. For seventy years since the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, Soviet and then Russian leaders have basically been managing the unraveling of their empire. It’s over for Russia. One of the speakers described the Romanov tsars as “bastards” and said he looked forward to tourists going back to Russia after its empire collapses and hearing the real story about the country’s history as they walk around Red Square.
All four of the speakers are convinced that Ukraine will win this war, and one emphasized that “Russia must lose this imperial war because this is also a war for Europe’s future.” In addition to Russia’s disintegration, all the speakers noted the remarkable emergence of Ukraine under President Zelensky’s leadership. They affirmed Zelensky’s prediction that the next 90 days will be decisive for Ukraine to win this war, and for the future of the free world. Rather than portraying their country as the opposite of its former colonial ruler, like many countries who win their war of liberation, Ukraine has decentralized its governance and close bonds have been formed between the government, the army, and the people. They are proudly emphasizing their diversity, their different languages, and the variety of their regional histories. They are becoming a model of a successful country, not closing its doors to strangers or creating a single cultural identity, but celebrating their multi-cultural identity and their shared excitement about the future. What a contrast to the other nations in Europe, which are becoming autocratic regimes, like Italy and Hungary!
As often happens with bright secular scholars, nothing was said about the role of religion and the impressive spiritual freedom and ecumenical cooperation in Ukraine, which is unmatched anywhere else in Western or Central Europe. This reality helps us to understand the cultural openness and mutual support taking place in war-torn Ukraine, and it was disappointing that the experts failed to discuss this important aspect of Ukrainian life. But they did repeatedly emphasize the critical importance of the United States and its European allies in equipping Ukrainian Armed Forces in their battle to push the invaders out of their country. One speaker stressed that this is not a war about territory, it is about the Ukrainian people fighting for values, ethics, and the human condition. I wholeheartedly agree - they are yearning for freedom, and we need to stand with them.
If you are interested in learning more from these experts, here are their names and institutional affiliations, which you can pursue on the Internet:
· Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic
· Niall Ferguson, Stanford University
· Serhii Plokhii, Harvard University
· Timothy Snyder, Yale University
Their presentations were made at the YES (Yalta European Strategy) conference on September 9-10, 2022.