What often gets overlooked in news reports about the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are all the ways in which the four autocracies (Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea) work together – sometimes openly and often secretly – to support each other’s aggressive foreign policies. This makes the current crisis very complex; most of us struggle to understand what is at stake and who are the leaders behind the violence and brutality in Ukraine and Gaza, principally targeted at innocent civilians.
In Gaza, the Islamic Republic of Iran is a principal funder for Hamas, one of a network of militias that work in close cooperation with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, who provide arms, training, and financial support to militias in six Middle Eastern countries. Since the Iranian revolution of 1979, Iran has supported terrorism spread across the Muslim world, utilizing assassinations, coup attempts, and bombings. In addition to its support of Hamas, Iran has aided the development of the Lebanese Hezbollah, which operates on the northern border of Israel and has launched attacks on Israel, creating a second front that stretches out Israel’s defensive forces. In addition, Iran is a sponsor of a militia that is engaged in fighting in Syria, where they partner with Russian forces to stabilize the dictatorship in Damascus, with similar support for terrorists in Bahrain, Iraq, and Yemen.
Russia has formed an “axis of evil” with Iran, one of its principal autocratic partners, and together they are supporting Hamas’ attacks in Gaza and Israel. For Vladimir Putin, this conflict in Gaza distracts attention from his atrocities in Ukraine and may reduce or end U. S. military assistance to Ukraine if the United States gives preference to support for Israel. A senior Hamas official thanked Putin for Russia’s support and said, “Russia is happy that America is getting involved in the Palestinian war. It eases the pressure on the Russians in Ukraine.”
Iran is also involved in supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine and has been a supplier of missiles and drones used to attack civilian targets. Russia and Iran are out to create instability and chaos. Their goal is to defeat the emerging democracy in Ukraine, which Putin fears, and any normalization of Israeli-Saudi relations, which would allow Israel to deepen its relationships with a number of Arab states. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, declared the current conflict with Hamas “an irreparable defeat” for Israel that will be “a devastating blow.”
It is not clear if Iran’s support of Hamas in the Israeli-Gaza conflict will escalate even further and eventually lead to a direct conflict with Israel and possibly the United States. President Biden’s decision to send two Carrier Strike Groups to the eastern Mediterranean, currently totaling fourteen ships, is designed as a warning to Iran and Russia to stay out of this conflict.
North Korea is also a part of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Using open channels of support for Russia’s war against Ukraine, and some more secretive channels as well, Kim Jong Un has linked his pariah state to the other autocracies. He shares Putin’s and Xi Jinping’s goal of challenging the current world order, largely run by democracies, through a series of security alliances that were created following World War Two. The autocrats want to generate chaos and fear through their terrorism, in order to secure the support of the nations in Africa and Latin America to build a global political system that they would control. They believe the democracies are weakening and that their strong centralized political systems are the wave of the future.
The fourth autocracy is China. Its president, Xi Jinping, has been a verbal supporter of Russia’s intervention in Ukraine and Hamas’ attack on Israel. Numerous charges have been made about China’s secretive provision of needed supplies in these two conflicts, but China has distanced itself from the more aggressive involvement of Iran and Russia. Both China and Russia have described Israel as a “colonizer” that “oppresses Palestinians,” despite their own histories of repressing their minority populations.
This brief overview of the threat of an escalating war instigated by these four autocrats makes the job of president of the United States the most difficult leadership position in the world. The threat in these current crises in Ukraine and Gaza alone, with all their complexities, is staggering. Four ruthless autocrats are committing brutal terrorism against innocent civilians to force the collapse of the defensive systems in Ukraine and Gaza. Four autocracies and multiple militias are spreading violence and chaos, and many Western leaders have simply stood back and watched.
As Peter Baker noted when he traveled with the president to Tel Aviv, “Mr. Biden flew to Israel on Wednesday to give the whole country a hug, to say how much America grieves with Israel and stands by Israel and has Israel’s back.” No president has ever visited Israel during a war and this decision to stay in Israel for seven and a half hours involved great risk. Air Force One landed in Tel Aviv, which was within range of Hamas rockets – many international airlines cancelled flights for this reason. The president knows about the pain of losing his loved ones, and his hugging of the survivors or friends of survivors of the vicious Hamas attacks was a powerful testimony of his personal commitment and that of the vast majority of Americans. He made it clear: “I want you to know you’re not alone.” A number of leading commentators have described this as Biden’s “finest hour.” I agree.
Americans need to set aside their differences and focus on their common commitment to build a secure world. This kind of moral leadership is needed now in response to this two-front war: defending Israel and the majority of Palestinians and Ukrainians from enemies who hate democracies.