The vast majority of TV and newspaper reports from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict focus their attention on the battlefield and the expected Ukrainian offensive drives this spring and summer. The dominant theme is that the Ukrainians have made little progress, and western analysts are quick to be critical of this situation. Regardless of the incredible resistance of the out-manned Ukrainian army – and their success in blocking the occupation of key Ukrainian cities, such as Kyiv, Moscow’s number one target – there is much talk about a possible stalemate. The opinions of this “herd mentality” must be tiring to Ukraine’s political and military leadership.
I just read two recent books that provide significant insights into Ukraine’s wartime leadership. Most educated Americans know more about Vladimir Putin and his path to power in Moscow than Volodymyr Zelensky’s emergence as Ukraine’s president. Iuliia Mendel’s The Fight of Our Lives and Olga Onuch and Henry E. Hale’s The Zelensky Effect are fascinating studies of Zelensky’s career and the development of civic activism in Ukraine. Mendel worked as Zelensky’s press secretary for the first two years (2019-2021) of his presidency. Onuch and Hale are scholars of international politics with expertise in Ukraine.
Both books highlight the important role of the younger generation in Ukraine – the “Independence Generation” – who are the hope of Ukraine’s future. Zelensky has talked about this first fully post-Soviet generation, and his former press secretary described their attitudes this way: “Out of all this pain [of the war], there is one thing I do know: this war, like the fiery breath of an enraged dragon, has burned away all that was artificial and superficial in our lives. . . We have seen the immense power that we derive from learning to work together as a people and a nation. . . We Ukrainians will never give up – not to Russia, not to terror or any other evil . . . I have always believed in Ukraine. And I always will.”
The two books note the courage of Zelensky and his decision not to flee when the Russians attacked on February 24, 2022, despite multiple assassination attempts. They emphasize how Zelensky acted like a history teacher, the role he played in his television series, and when the Russians attacked, he constantly talked about protecting Ukrainian culture and how this created a strong sense of civic national belonging and duty. Ukrainians heard their president link the sense of being Ukrainian to Europe’s development of democratic ideals and how their civic identity made them partners with Europe, not the Russian/Soviet world.
After his first two years in office, having won the presidential election by a landslide, Zelensky’s popularity began to drop as he struggled with some challenging domestic issues, a pattern previous Ukrainian presidents also experienced. But when the Russians attacked, his strong fearless posture encouraged the Ukrainians to join him and the Ukrainian army in a fight for their lives and for their country. While the shock and fear were sudden, it was remarkable how the citizens of Ukraine were immediately ready to fight back and defend their homeland. Together with the Ukrainian army, which responded to the attack with precision and speed, citizens were quickly united in their struggle against the invaders.
Using communication skills developed by years on the stage and on television, Zelensky began to make a recording every day, sometimes more than one per day. He established a direct line to Ukrainians, which was a powerful connection for the average citizen – something Putin never did in Russia. The message was simple: We will fight, our leaders are strong and united, and we will win!
Now, 18 months after the Russian invasion, one of the most significant issues on the home front is who will lead Ukraine when the war ends. Many of us remember that Winston Churchill was voted out of office as Prime Minister after leading his country to a remarkable victory over Hitler and his Nazi war machine. Could this happen to Zelensky? Another historical figure, Charles de Gaulle, lead France through the war and remained in power for more than two decades.
It is hard to anticipate how this important leadership question will turn out in Ukraine. Before he was elected as president, Zelensky said the president should only serve one five-year term. After becoming a global hero and speaking to the leadership of many supporting nations, is it possible for him to walk away from this role? His wife may have something to say about this, since she did not want him to enter the presidential race in the first place. But it is also possible that he will seek a second term, and possibly more, even though their constitution only allows a two-term president. It reminds me again of the uniqueness of George Washington’s decision to step down from leadership of the new American nation, a very rare act for a political leader.
This war reflects a generational struggle between Ukrainian and Russian leaders. Zelensky and many of his colleagues are in their 40s, and they are committed to building a new democracy that celebrates its multilingual, multi-ethnic and multi-religious diversity, unlike any period in the country’s history. Putin and many of his closest advisors are over 70 years old, and these Russian leaders are looking backward, trying to resurrect the former Soviet Empire and its glory days of the past. These are two distinct generations of leaders – one committed to a future hope and the other to an idealized past.
One significant challenge faces Ukraine’s current youthful leadership. As opposition begins to form in Ukraine when the trials of the war decrease, Zelensky and his team need to avoid the trap of accumulating power for themselves. This has happened in many post-Soviet states where the drive to create a strong presidency took place, often followed by the gradual development of a dictatorship.
Ukraine’s leadership will need to deal with national security threats to their country, while nurturing the growth of democracy. While this is much less of a problem than what Russia is experiencing right now after the Wagner Group threat, it will require wise choices by Ukrainian leaders. They must remain firmly grounded in a commitment to the unity that the war created and a deep passion for democratic governance that enhances the rich diversity of the Ukrainian people.